I have presented my work with Chenyu Hou and Paul Beaudry, “Monetary Policy when the Phillips Curve is Quite Flat” at the Goethe Universität yesterday.
Thanks to Ester Faia, Mathias Trabandt, Leo Kaas, Philipp Grübener, Chiara Lacava, Guido Friebel, Michael Haliassos, Marek Ignaszak and to all the seminar participants for their invitation and hospitality.
C’est le titre de la conférence que j’ai donnée le 10 avril 2022 à l’Université des Savoirs Partagés de Villefranche-de-Rouergue. Les transparents sont ici et également ci-dessous. Merci à toute l’équipe de l’USP pour son accueil chaleureux.
To paraphrase Gabriel García Márquez, this is what I have done during the 2020-2021 academic year. Besides the teaching and the UCL seminars I did the following:
November 22, 2020: I gave a distant seminar at University of Michigan. I presented “Monetary Policy when the Phillips Curve is Quite Flat” (co-authored with Paul Beaudry and Chenyu Hou).
I was appointed Managing Editor of the Economy Journal.
I was appointed chair of the “comité d’évaluation scientifique” of the “Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques (OFCE)June 14-15, 2021: I attended the “Advances in Structural Shocks Identification” Barcelona workshop.
I presented “Dynamic Identification in VARs” (co-authored with Paul Beaudry, Fabrice Collard, Patrick Fève and Alain Guay)
June 18, 2021: I organised with Moritz Kuhn the first LonBonn Macro Workshop (UCL & Bonn)
August 26-27, 2021: I attended the Salento Macro Workshop. I presented “Does it Matter to Assume that U.S. Monetary Authorities Follow a Taylor Rule?” (co-authored with Paul Beaudry and Andy Preston)
September 20, 2021: I attended the Hydra workshop in Rhodes, and presented “Does it Matter to Assume that U.S. Monetary Authorities Follow a Taylor Rule?” (co-authored with Paul Beaudry and Andy Preston)
October 21-22, 2021: I gave a keynote speech that the annual conference of the TEPP federation in Evry (Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques). The title of the talk was “What do we really know about the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations?” and the slides can be found here.
December 16-17, 2021,: I gave a keynote speech at the New Directions for Inflation Forecasting workshop, Paris, organised by Frédérique Bec (Cergy Paris University), Dick van Dijk (Erasmus University Rotterdam) and Laurent Ferrara (Skema Business School, Paris). The title of the talk was “Non Inflationary Business Cycles” and the slides can be found here.
Warning: this are the results of an anonymous Google poll. I have no control on who are the respondents and how representative they are. Responses were collected between April 24 and May 7, 2020.
I have now gathered 75 responses to the Google poll on next year Econ job market prospects.
Summary: Results are showing a pretty gloomy picture. Expectations are that job offers on the Econ job market will be reduced by more than 50% and that most of US/Canada and European universities will freeze hirings. One consequence: being able to go two years in a row on the market should be the new normal.
Hiring freeze ahead
First question shows that a bit less than 50% of respondents’ institution will freeze hires next year.
To wait or not to wait?
Respondents view on best strategy for candidates is pretty mixed, but most suggest to go to the market next year.
US/Canada in a bad shape, Rest of the world not doing much better
Respondents expect US/Canada universities not to hire, Europe and Rest of the world are not doing much better.
57% drop in hiring is expected
Expectations are a bit dispersed, but the median is at 50% reduction. I believe this is a much bigger drop than in other sectors.
The new normal: go two years in a row on the market
There is a clear consensus that job market candidates that will go twice in a row on the market should not be penalised.
Who and where? About half of respondents are faculty, most of the other ones are grad students. Most of the institutions are universities, a bit more than 50% are US/Canada based, most of the rest is European.
Harris Dellas has organized a new edition of a great series of conferences (named after the original location, the island of Hydra near Athens in Greece). I have been lucky to be invited again to discuss a paper of V. V. Chari, Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles entitled “Optimal Cooperative Taxation in the Global Economy” (see the discussion page).
Here is the program of the workshop:
Information Acquisition, Efficiency, and Non-Fundamental Volatility , Benjamin Hebert (Stanford), Jennifer La’O (Columbia)
With a group of good friends, (Tim Kehoe (University of Minnesota), Árpád Ábráhám (European University Institute), Jaime Alonso-Carrera (Universidade de Vigo), Juan Carlos Conesa (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Antonia Díaz (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), Omar Licandro (Instituto del Análisis Económico-CSIC) and J. Víctor Ríos-Rull (University of Minnesota)), I have organized the XXIVth edition of the Vigo Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics. (Jaime is the real organiser of the workshop).
The workshop takes place in a fantastic location. It is the perfect combination of good economics (a lot of) and fun (a lot of). Presentation are done by PhD students.
As far as economics is conerned, here wass the program:
Tuesday, 9 July
10:00-11:00: Vladimir Smirnyagin (University of Minnesota), “Uncertainty driven entry and exit over the business cycle.”
11:00-12:00: Andrey Alexandrov (University of Mannheim), “Trends and business cycle asymmetry.”
12:30-13:30: Nicholas Pretnar (Carnegie Mellon University), “The costs and benefits of caring: Aggregate burdens of an aging population.”
13:30-14:30: Diana Van Patten Rivera (University of California, Los Angeles), “International diffusion of technology: Accounting for heterogeneous learning abilities.”
16:00-17:00: Agustín Samano Peñaloza (University of Minnesota), “International reserves and central bank independence.”
17:00-18:00: Oliko Vardishvili (European University Institute), “The macroeconomic cost of college dropouts.”
Wednesday, 10 July
10:00-11:00: Ismael Gálvez Iniesta (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), “The role of immigration in a deep recession: The case of Spain.”
11:30-12:30: Ana Moreno Maldonado (European University Institute), “Mums and the city: Female labour force participation and city size.”
12:30-13:30: Francisco Javier Rodríguez Román (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), “The sex ratio, marital sorting and labor supply: A Chinese story.”
Thursday, 11 July
9:30-10:30: Patrick Donnolley Moran (University of Oxford), “Temptation and Commitment: Understanding the Demand for Illiquidity.”
10:30-11:30: Christian Hoynck (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), “Assessing the network effects of monetary policy.”
12:00-13:00: Timo Reinelt (University of Mannheim), “The misallocation channel of monetary policy.”
13:00-14:00: Sergio Feijoo Moreira (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), “Inside the decline of the labor share: Bringing the tales together.”
I attended yesterday the annual workshop of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomics at Birkbeck College. I have presented my work with Paul Beaudry and Dana Galizia, “Putting the Cycle Back In Business Cycle Analysis”
The workshop organisers were Yunus Aksoy and Pedro Gomes, and the program was:
Innovate to Lead or Innovate to Prevail: When do Monopolistic Rents Induce Growth?, Yu Zeng, Queen Mary UL (with Piazza)
Public Employment in a Theory of Underemployment, Pedro Gomes, Birkbeck (with Garibaldi)
A Rational Inattention Unemployment Trap, Martin Ellison (Oxford)
The Relationship between VAR and DSGE Models when Agents have Imperfect Information, Stephen Wright, Birkbeck (with Levine, Pearlman)
Time Variation in Lifecycle Consumption and Housing Wealth, Yunus Aksoy, Birkbeck (with Basso and St Aubyn)
Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis, Franck Portier, UCL (with Beaudry and Galizia)
Macroeconomic Impact of Euro, Ron Smith, Birkbeck (with Akhmedieva)
Rationalizing Trading Frequency and Returns: Maybe Trading is Good for You, Russell Cooper, European University Institute (with Bonaparte and Sha)
I am giving a keynote speech at the 3rd Workshop on Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series Analysis of the University of Lancaster. The other keynote speaker will be Gary Koop. The worskshop is organised by Philllip Renner, William Tayler and Roy Zilberman.
I will present my work with Chenyu Hou and Paul Beaudry “Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices”. The slides of my presentation are available.
The program of the workshop is:
Thursday, 6th of June
12:50-13:00: WELCOME – Maurizio Zanardi (Head of Economics Department, Lancaster University Management School)
13:00-14:00: KEYNOTE – Franck Portier (University College London) – Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices (with Paul Beaudry)
14:30–15:00: Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary) – Changing impact of shocks : a time-varying proxy SVAR approach (with Katerina Petrova)
15:00–15:30: Alex Clymo (University of Essex) – Dispersion over the Business Cycle : Productivity versus Demand
15:30–16:00: Tom Holden (Deutsche Bundesbank) – The relative price of capital is increasing.
16:30–17:00: Roy Zilberman (Lancaster University) – Macroprudential Interventions in Liquidity Traps (with William Tayler)
17:00–17:30: Ferre De Graeve (KU Leuven) – Understanding International Long-Term Interest Rate Comovement (with Michael Chin, Thomai Filippeli and Konstantinos Theodoridis)
17:30–18:00: Agnes Kovacs (University of Manchester) – Temptation and Commitment: Understanding the Demand for Illiquidity
Friday, 7th of June
09:30-10:00: Andrea Colciago (De Nederlandsche Bank) – Competition and Inequality: Bewley and Aiyagari meet Bertrand and Cournot
10:00-10:30: Chris Redl (Bank of England) – Uncertainty Matters : Evidence from Close elections
10:30-11:00: Cristiano Cantore (Bank of England, University of Surrey and Centre for Macroeconomics) – Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: The Labor Share Response to Fiscal Spending Shocks (with Lukas Freund and Giovanni Melina)
11:30-12:30: KEYNOTE – Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde) – Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: More Timely and Higher Frequency Estimates, 1970-2017 (with Stuart McIntyre, James Mitchell and Aubrey Poon)
13:30-14:00: Federica Romei (Stockholm School of Economics) – Sovereign Default in a Monetary Union (with Sergio de Ferra)
14:00-14:30: Sergio de Ferra (Stockholm University) – External Imbalances, Gross Capital Flows and Sovereign Debt Crises
14:30-15:00: Mirko Abbritti (Universidad de Navarra) – Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union (with Sebastian Weber)
15:30-16:00: Maik Wolters (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) – Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter.
16:00-16:30: Serhiy Stepanchuk (University of Southamption) – Dynamic Perturbation
16:30-17:00: Yifan Li (University of Manchester) – Renewal Based Volatility Estimation (with Ingmar Nolte and Sandra Nolte)
I am in Trento lecturing today and tomorrow at the Axel Leijonhufvud Trento Summer School. The school is organised by Martin Guzman (Columbia University and University of Buenos Aires) and Daniel Heymann, (University of Buenos Aires).
In SVARs, identification of structural shocks can be subject to nonfundamentalness, as the econometrician may have an information set smaller than the economic agents’ one. How se- rious is that problem from a quantitative point of view? In this paper we propose a simple diagnostic for the quantitative importance of nonfundamentalness in structural VARs. The di- agnostic is of interest as nonfundamentalness is not an either/or question, and its quantitative implications can be more or less severe. As an illustration, we apply our diagnostic to the iden- tification of TFP news shocks and we find that nonfundamentalness is of little quantitatively importance in that context.
Key Words are NonFundamentalness, BusinessCycles, SVARs, NewsShocks.
It is commonly accepted that economic expansions do not exhibit duration dependence, that is, the probability of an expansion terminating in the near future is thought to be independent of the length of the expansion. Our main focus is on determining the probability of the US economy entering a recession in the following year (or following two years) conditional on the expansion having lasted q quarters. When looking at the probability of entering a recession within a year (or 2 years), we find considerable evidence of economically significant duration dependence, especially when adopting a non-parametric approach. For example, for an expansion that has lasted only 5 quarters, the probability of entering a recession in the next year is around 10%, while this increases to 30-40% if the expansion has lasted over 35 quarters. Similarly, if looking at a two years window, we find the probability of entering a recession in the next two years raises from 25 30% to around 50-80% as the expansion extends from 5 quarters to 32 quarters. This pattern suggests that certain types of macroeconomic vulnerabilities may be accumulating as the expansion ages causing the arrival of a recession to become more likely. Our non-parametric estimates suggest that this later pattern is especially important once a recession has lasted more than 6 years.
I have attended the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference in Warwick. The program chair and deputy chair were my colleagues Fabien Postel-Vinay and Terri Kneeland. I presented my joint work with Paul Beaudry and Chenyu Hou “Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices”. The slides of my presentation are here.
I visited the Econ department of the University of Birmingham on March 27. it was a great opportunity to meet and talk with John Fender, Christoph Görtz, Rebecca McDonald and Kaushik Mitra. I presented my joint work with Paul Beaudry and Chenyu Hou “Real Keynesian Models and Sticky Prices”. The slides of my presentation are here.
Last Monday, I attended a small progress workshop in Warwick, where I presented the the first results of your new research with Dana Galizia and Paul Beaudry, on fluctuations in macroeconomics as emergent phenomena. You can have a look at the slides I used here.