Séminaire CREST du 29 Mars 2012

Je présenterai le papier suivant au séminaire du CREST jeudi 29 mars 2012:

A Gains from Trade Perspective on Macroeconomic Fluctuations

with Paul Beaudry, 2011 (à télécharger sur la page current work)

Abstract:

Business cycles reflect changes over time in the amount of trade between individuals. In this paper we show that incorporating explicitly intra-temporal gains from trade between individuals into a macroeconomic model can provide new insight into the potential mechanisms driving economic fluctuations as well as modify key policy implications. We first show how a “gains from trade” approach can easily explain why changes in perceptions about the future (including “news” about the future) can cause booms and bust. We then turn to fiscal policy, and discuss under what conditions fiscal multipliers can be observed. While much of our analysis is conducted in a flexible price environment, we also present implications of our model for a sticky price environments, as it allows to understand stable-inflation boom-bust cycles. The source of the explicit gains from trade in our setup derives from simply assuming that in the short run workers are not perfect mobile across all sectors of the economy. We provide evidence from the PSID in support of this modeling assumption.

IDEFI: TSE lauréat pour le projet FREDD

Bonne nouvelle pour les étudiants et les enseignants en économie de Toulouse! Laurent Wauquiez a annoncé, mardi 13 mars 2012, la liste des 37 lauréats à l’appel à projets Idefi, qui récompense les “Initiatives d’excellence en formations innovantes”. Nous sommes parmi ces 37 lauréats avec le projet FREDD (FoRmer les Economistes de Demain). Nous recevons  7 millions d’euros sur 8 ans.

On peut trouver la liste des 37 lauréats ici (nous sommes page 18). Le communiqué de presse de l’école est ici, et l’ensemble des information sur le site de l’école.

2011 Banque de France – TSE Prize Prize in Monetary Economics and Finance

In 2011, the Banque de France and the Toulouse School of Economics have jointly launched two annual prizes to distinguish leading economists in the fields of Monetary Economics and Finance. I am in charge of the prize with Benoît Mojon from the Banque de France. Check the homepage of the Banque de France-TSE partnership here.

For the first edition, the Senior Prize is awarded to Bengt Holmström, for his analysis of liquidity under asymmetric information.

The two Junior Prizes are awarded to Viral V. Acharya and Klaus Adam.

A small workshop (with the three laureates plus Gary Gorton, Arvind Krishnamurthy and Jean-Charles Rochet) will be organized at the Banque de France on March 16th, before the prize ceremony, that will be chaired by Christian Noyer, Gornernor of the Banque de France.

2011 Senior Prize : Bengt Holmström (MIT)

2011 Junior Prize : Viral V. Acharya (NYU)

2011 Junior Prize : Klaus Adam (Mannheim)

More information about the prizes:

• The Biennal Senior Prize. It carries a cash award of 30,000 euros. The award winner will give a keynote speech in Paris before receiving his award by the governor of the Banque de France.
• The Annual Junior Prize onwards to two economists below the age of 40:
  • One to a researcher affiliated with a European-based institution,
  • One to a researcher affiliated with an institution based outside Europe.

Laureates of the Junior prize will spend at least four weeks as a visiting scientist between the Banque de France and the Toulouse School of Economics. The Juionr prize carries a cash award of 15,000 euros plus travel and living expenses.

The 2011 Jury

This year’s jury is co-presided by Jean-Pierre Landau (Deputy Governor, Banque de France) and Jean Tirole (President, TSE). The members are:

• Daron Acemoglu (Professor, MIT),
• Stanley Fischer (Governor, Central Bank of Israel),
• Christian Hellwig (Professor, TSE),
• Pierre Jaillet (Director General Economics and International, Banque de France),
• Robert Ophèle (Director General of Operations, Banque de France),
• Jean-Charles Rochet (Professor, TSE),
• David Thesmar (Professor, HEC Paris).

News, Sentiment, and Confidence in Fluctuations (update)

Here is the final version of the SEEK/CEPR Workshop on “News, Sentiment, and Confidence in Fluctuations”

Monday, March 5

08:45 – 09:00 Welcome and Introduction

09:00 – 10:20 Session 1

Interaction between Demand for Labor and Consumption over the Business Cycle, Wouter den Haan (London School of Economics)

Labor Supply Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Co-movement, Bruce Preston (Columbia University), Stefano Eusepi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

10:20 – 10:50 Break

10:50 – 12:50 Session 2

News Shocks, Fundamentalness and Economic Fluctuations, Luca Sala (IGIER, Università Bocconi), Mario Forni (Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia, CEPR and RECent), Luca Gambetti (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration, Jean-Paul L’Huillier (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance), Olivier Blanchard (IMF,NBER and CEPR) and Guido Lorenzoni (MIT)

Discrete Actions in Information-Constrained Tracking Problems, Filip Matejka (CERGE, Charles University and the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic), Christopher A. Sims (Princeton University)

12:50 – 14:00 Lunch

14:00 – 15:20 Session 3

Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment, Sylvain Leduc (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Fiscal News and Macroeconomic Volatility, Johannes Pfeifer (Universität Bonn), Benjamin Born (Ifo Institute)

15:20 – 16:00 Break

16:00 – 18:00 Session 4

What’s News in Business Cycles, Martin Uribe (Columbia University and NBER.), Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe (Columbia

University, CEPR, and NBER)

Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and Is It Rational?, Jian Wang (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia and NBER), Deokwoo Nam (City University of Hong Kong)

News Shocks, Productivity and the U.S. Investment Boom-Bust Cycle, Lilia Karnizova (University of Ottawa)

18:00 Dinner

Tuesday, March 6

08:30 – 09:50 Session 5

Long-run Growth Expectations and “Global Imbalances”, Michael U. Krause (Deutsche Bundesbank), Mathias Hoffmann (Deutsche Bundesbank), Thomas Laubach (Goethe University Frankfurt and Deutsche Bundesbank)

House Price Booms and the Current Account, Klaus Adam (Universität Mannheim and CEPR), Pei Kuang (University of Frankfurt), Albert Marcet (London School of Economics, CEP and CEPR)

09:50 – 10:15 Break

10:15 – 12:15 Session 6

News, Intermediation Efficiency and Expectations-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles, Alok Johri (McMaster University), Christopher M. Gunn (McMaster University)

Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence, Eric Sims (University of Notre Dame and NBER), Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Michigan, RWTH Aachen University, NBER, CESifo and ifo), Tim O. Berg (Ifo Institute)

TBA, Christian Hellwig (Toulouse School of Economics and CEPR)

12:15 – 13:15 Lunch

13:15 – 14:45 Round Table Discussion / Closing