NBER Summer Institute, Boston, Mass., July 6-10, 2015

From July 6 to 10, I attended the Impulse and Propagation Mechanisms group workshop during the 2015 NBER Summer Institute in Boston. I havre presented our recent work with Paul Beaudry and Dana Galicia, “Reviving The Limit Cycle View of Business Cycles“.  The full progam of the workshop is given below.

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

SI 2015 Impulse and Propagation Mechanisms

Lawrence Christiano and Martin S. Eichenbaum, Organizers

July 6-10, 2015

University Room – BC Royal Sonesta Hotel 40 Edwin H. Land Blvd. Cambridge, MA

PROGRAM

Monday, July 06
8:30 am	Coffee and Pastries
9:00 am	Cosmin Ilut, Duke University and NBER Rosen Valchev, Boston College Nicolas Vincent, HEC Montreal Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty
10:00 am	Break
10:15 am	Javier Bianchi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Self Fulfilling Unemployment Crises
11:15 am	Break
11:30 am	Julian Kozlowski, New York University Laura Veldkamp, New York University and NBER Venky Venkateswaran, New York University and NBER The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation
12:30 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
Tuesday, July 07
8:30 am	Coffee and Pastries
9:00 am	Paul Beaudry, University of British Columbia and NBER Dana S. Galizia, University of British Columbia Franck Portier, Toulouse School of Economics Reviving the limit cycle view of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
10:00 am	Break
10:15 am	Marcus Hagedorn, Institute for Advanced Studies Jessie Handbury, University of Pennsylvania and NBER Iourii Manovskii, University of Pennsylvania and NBER Demand Stimulus, Inflation and Marginal Costs: Empirical Evidence
11:15 am	Break
11:30 am	Olivier Coibion, University of Texas at Austin and NBER Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California at Berkeley and NBER Saten Kumar, AUT University How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence
12:30 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
Wednesday, July 08
8:30 am	Coffee and Pastries
9:00 am	Zvi Eckstein, Boston University Ofer Setty, Tel Aviv University David Weiss, Tel Aviv University Financial Risk and Unemployment
10:00 am	Break
10:15 am	Jordi Gali, Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional and NBER Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem Revisited
11:15 am	Break
11:30 am	Vasco M. Carvalho, CREI Basile Grassi, Paris School of Economics Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle
12:30 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
6:00 pm	Clambake at the Royal Sonesta Hotel
Thursday, July 9:
8:30 am	Coffee and Pastries
9:00 am	Michael Woodford, Columbia University and NBER Mariana Garcia Schmidt, Columbia University Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis
10:00 am	Break
10:15 am	Lawrence Christiano, Northwestern University and NBER Martin Eichenbaum, Northwestern University and NBER Benjamin Johannsen, Federal Reserve Board Does the New Keynesian Model have a Multiplicity Problem?
11:15 am	Break
11:30 am	Mark Gertler, New York University and NBER Diego Comin, Dartmouth College and NBER TBA
12:30 pm	Lunch and Adjourn
Friday, July 10
8:30 am	Coffee and Pastries
9:00 am	Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe University Frankfurt Empirical Properties of Inflation Expectations and the Zero Lower Bound
10:00 am	Break
10:15 am	Oscar Jorda, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn Alan M. Taylor, University of California at Davis and NBER Leveraged Bubbles
11:15 am	Break
11:30 am	Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University and NBER Martin Schneider, Stanford University and NBER Payments, Credit and Asset Prices
12:30 pm	Lunch and Adjourn

XXth Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics, June 30 and July 1-2, 2015, Pazo de Soutomaior, Vigo, Spain

 With a group of good friends, (Tim Kehoe (University of Minnesota), Jaime Alonso-Carrera (Universidade de Vigo), Juan Carlos Conesa (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), José Maria Da-Rocha (Universidade de Vigo), Antonia Díaz (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), Omar Licandro (Instituto del Análisis Económico-CSIC) and J. Víctor Ríos-Rull (University of Minnesota)), I have organized the XXth edition of the Vigo Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics.

The workshop takes place in a fantastic location. It is the perfect combination of good economics (a lot of) and fun (a lot of). Presentation are done by PhD students.

As far as economics is conerned, here is the program:

TUESDAY, 30 JUNE 

10:00-11:00:  Radek Paluszynski, University of Minnesota, “International Bailouts and Sovereign Default Risk.” [PDF]

11:00-12:00:  Christoph Große Steffen, German Institute for Economic Research, “Uncertainty Shocks and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises: An Ambiguity Approach.” [PDF]

12:00-12:30 break 

12:30-14:30: Anil Ari, University of Camdbrige, “Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk.” [PDF]

13:30-14:30:  Dominik Thaler, European University Institute, “Monetary Policy Effectson Bank Risk Taking.” [PDF]

14:30-16:00:  lunch

16:00-17:00:  Stefanie Huber, Universidad Pompeu Fabra, “Preference for HousingServices and Rational House Price Bubbles.” [PDF]

17:00-18:00:  Lan Lan, Toulouse School of Economics, “Understanding the SavingBehavior of Chinese Households: Intergenerational Transfer and Housing.” [PDF]

18:00-18:30:  break 

18:30-19:30:  Noëmie Lisack, European University Institute, “Alternative Finance and Firms’ Development: The Case of China.” [PDF]

WEDNESDAY, 1 JULY

9:30-10:30:  Salvatore Lo Bello, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, “Structural Change and Growth: The Role of Income Distribution.” [PDF]

10:30-11:30:  Bettina Brüggemann, Goethe University Frankfurt, “Higher Taxes at theTop: The Role of Entrepreneurs.” [PDF]

11:30-12:00:  break 

12:00-13:00:  Pavel Brendler, European University Institute, “Life-Time EarningsInequality and Within-Cohort Redistribution through Social Security in the U.S.” [PDF]

13:00-14:00:  Yingnan Zhao, University of Zurich, “Bank Lending and Firm Dynamics in General Equilibrium.” [PDF]

14:00:  lunch 

THURSDAY, 2 JULY

9:30-10:30:   Florian Exler, University of Mannheim, “Personal Bankruptcy and WageGarnishment.” [PDF]

10:30-11:30:  Iacopo Morchio, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, “Information Frictions, Match Quality, and Lifetime Unemployment.” [PDF]

11:30-12:00:  break 

12:00-13:00:  Jose Rodolfo Morales, Universidad de Murcia, “An Economic GeographyModel with Natural Resources.” [PDF]

13:00-14:00: Paweł Doligalski, European University Institute, “Optimal Redistributionwith a Shadow Economy.” [PDF]

14:00:  lunch

Society of Economic Dynamics 2015 Meeting, June 25-27, Warsaw

I have attended the 2015 SED meeting in Warsaw. As I write every year, as good as always.  I presented my  paper with Paul Beaudry and Dana Galicia “Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ views of recessions” in a session ” Understanding Aggregate Demand Shortages” that was organized by Alp Simsek.

Here is the program of that session:

Session ID 52: Understanding Aggregate Demand Shortages June 25, 2015 9:30 to 11:00
Session Chair: Alp Simsek, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy
By Pierpaolo Benigno; LUISS Gauti Eggertsson; Brown University Federica Romei; European University Institute
Presented by: Pierpaolo Benigno, LUISS
Reconciling Hayek’s and Keynes’ views of recessions
By Paul Beaudry; University of British Columbia Dana Galizia; University of British Columbia Franck Portier; Toulouse School of Economics
Presented by: Franck Portier, Toulouse School of Economics
Investment Hangover and the Great Recession
By Matthew Rognlie; Massachusetts Institute of Technology Andrei Shleifer; Harvard University Alp Simsek; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Presented by: Alp Simsek, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

64 ième conférence annuelle de l’AFSE, Rennes, 22-24 juin 2015

Je devais participer à une table ronde intituléee “Les carrières dans l’enseignement supérieur et la recherche”, et à laquelle participaient:

• Alain Ayong Le Kama, Professeur à l’Université de Paris 10
• André Cartapanis, Professeur à Sciences Po Aix
• Thomas Jobert, Professeur à l’Université de Nice
• Yannick Lung, Professeur à l’Université de Bordeaux
• Sandrine Michel, Maître de Conférences à l’Université de Montpellier
• Franck Portier, Professeur à l’Université de Toulouse

Malheureusement, mon vol a été supprimé et je n’ai pas pu aller à Rennes. Dommage. On trouvera ici la page de la conférence, et ci-dessous une photo de la table ronde.

Secular Stagnation, Growth and Real Interest Rates, Conference at the EUI, June 18 and 19, 2015

I have been attending a conference organized by the  CEPR, the IMF and the EUI. I was discussing a nice paper of Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran entitled “The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation”.

See here for my discussion and here for the page of the conference, from which I copy the following:

In advanced economies, real interest rates have been falling since the early 1980s. Yet investment has not risen, and growth has slowed. Lawrence Summers, in a speech at the IMF in November 2013, invoked the possibility of ‘secular stagnation’. Inflation has come down, and major central banks target 2%. Nominal interest rates cannot go significantly below zero – the ‘zero lower bound’. Hence real interest rates cannot go much below zero either, so they may not get low enough to equate investment with savings at a full-employment level of output. Hence secular stagnation – slow growth of output as far as one can see. There are hugely important theoretical, empirical and policy issues here, and since the Summers specch, many top researchers have taken up the challenge. What is the equilibrium real rate of interest? If it has fallen, what are the forces behind that, and are they likely to reverse?

 

The program of the conference was:

Session 1: Beliefs, Labor Markets and Secular Stagnation

Chair: Pau Rabanal (IMF, Associate Editor of the IMF Economic Review)

The Tail that Wags the Economy: Belief-Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation Julian Kozlowski (New York University), Laura Veldkamp (New York University Stern School of Business), and Venky Venkateswaran (New York University Stern School of Business)

Discussant: Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics)

The Dark Corners of the Labor Market Vincent Sterk (University College London)

Discussant: Claudio Michelacci (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance)

Session 2: Secular Stagnation and Investment

Chair: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California at Berkeley, CEPR, and Editor in Chief of the IMF Economic Review)

The Corporate Saving Glut in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis
Joseph Gruber (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System) and Steven Kamin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

Discussant: Catherine L. Mann (OECD)

Why are Real Interest Rates so Low? Secular Stagnation and the Relative Price of Investment Goods
Gregory Thwaites (Bank of England)

Discussant: Neil Mehrotra (Brown University)

Session 3: Bubbles and the Global Dimension of Secular Stagnation

Chair: Ramon Marimon (EUI)

Credit Bubbles and Liquidity Traps: Implications for Monetary Policy
Vladimir Asriyan (CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Alberto Martin (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and CEPR) and Jaume Ventura (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and CEPR)

Discussant: François Geerolf (UCLA)

Contagious Malady? Global Dimensions of Secular Stagnation Gauti Eggertsson (Brown University), Neil Mehrotra (Brown University), Sanjay Singh (Brown University), and Lawrence H. Summers (Harvard University)

Discussant: Jaume Ventura (CREi)

Keynote Speech By Lawrence H. Summers (Harvard University)

Session 4: Real Interest Rates

Chair: Richard Portes (EUI, London Business School, and CEPR)

Lower for Longer? Neutral Rates in the United States
Andrea Pescatori (IMF) and Jarkko Turunen (IMF)

Discussant: Stefano Neri (Bank of Italy)

The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future
James Hamilton (University of California at San Diego and NBER), Ethan Harris (Bank of America Merrill Lynch), Jan Hatzius (Goldman Sachs) and Kenneth West (University of Wisconsin and NBER)

Discussant: Evi Pappa (EUI and CEPR)

Session 5: Demographics

Chair: Antonio Ciccone (University of Mannheim and CEPR)

Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates
Carlo Favero (IGIER, Università Bocconi, and CEPR), Arie Gozluklu (University of Warwick), and Haoxi Yang (Università Bocconi)

Discussant: Michele Lenza (ECB)

Demographic Dynamics and Long‐Run Development: Perspectives for the Secular Stagnation Debate
Uwe Sunde (University of Munich), Matteo Cervellati (University of Bologna) and Klaus F. Zimmermann (IZA Bonn University and CEPR)

Discussant: Raquel Fernández (NYU and CEPR) ! Discussion

Chair: Evi Pappa (EUI)

Liquidity Traps and Capital Flows
Sushant Acharya (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) and Julien Bengui (Université de Montréal)
Discussant: Gregory Thwaites (Bank of England)

Stagnation Traps
Gianluca Benigno (London School of Economics, CEPR, and Centre for Macroeconomics) and Luca Fornaro (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona GSE and CEPR)
Discussant:Philippe Aghion (Harvard University)